Source: ISW
Details: Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War note in their report that during the annual press conference "Direct Line" on December 19, Putin highlighted the achievements of Russian troops, stating that they are advancing "by square kilometers" along the front line. This approach contrasts with the previous focus on capturing key populated areas.
Analysts suggest that Putin may have instructed military command to postpone the capture of the strategic city of Pokrovsk, focusing instead on advancing through open fields and small settlements. Currently, Russian troops are located 10 kilometers from the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Word for word: The capture of the entire Donetsk region remains one of the Kremlin's key objectives. This advancement is likely being utilized as a propaganda tool to showcase the successes of the Russian army both domestically and internationally.
Details: Analysts add that an organized operation against well-fortified cities could slow the pace of advancement, which is critical for the Kremlin's attempts to demonstrate Russian superiority on the global stage.
Key Findings:
- Russian troops are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk. However, it remains unclear whether they will be able to leverage these successes to encircle the city or aim to move towards the administrative border of the Donetsk region.
- It is uncertain which efforts the Russian military command will prioritize. It is likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin has tasked the military with securing territorial gains rather than capturing large populated areas.
- The Russian command appears to have divided responsibility for the Pokrovsk direction between the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies of the Central Military District. Meanwhile, ISW has yet to observe significant activity in the area of responsibility of the ZVA.
- The declining combat readiness of Russian troops may slow their advance in the Pokrovsk direction. The increase in losses of armored vehicles over the past year, particularly among units that have been on the front lines for most of 2024, may also impact the pace of their operations.
- Reports indicate that North Korea plans to deploy more troops and weaponry in Russia. This comes amid information about over 3,000 North Korean military casualties in the Kursk region.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to promote the Kremlin's campaign aimed at undermining Western unity in support of Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is likely creating informational conditions for a false flag provocation in the separatist region of Transnistria. This could be part of efforts to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into the EU.
- It has been reported that Russian troops have completely withdrawn from most of their positions in Syria, particularly the base in Qamishli in the northern part of the country.
- Russian troops have advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Uledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in the Kursk region.
- The Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program, aimed at appointing veterans to government positions, is already causing conflicts between them and corrupt regional officials.