Source: ISW
Details: Analysts note that the Russian government, led by Vladimir Putin, continues to reject the negotiation terms proposed by the United States and demands that Ukraine relinquish territories that Russia does not occupy.
In his address to the Federal Security Service board on February 27, Putin stated that Russia will continue to enhance FSB operations in Donbas and the so-called "Novorossiya."
On February 27, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also stated that Donbas and "Novorossiya" are an "integral" part of Russia.
The review indicates that Putin and other Russian officials previously defined the so-called "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions), although its exact borders are disputed even among Russian ultra-nationalists.
Putin had previously demanded that Ukraine surrender the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, despite Russian troops not occupying significant portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Putin and other Russian officials regularly pointed out their intentions for territorial conquest beyond the administrative borders of these four illegally occupied regions.
Verbatim from the report: "New official statements from Russia claiming that the fictional region of 'Novorossiya' is part of Russia indicate that Putin maintains his maximalist territorial ambitions and is unwilling to make territorial concessions."
Details: The review highlights that Russian troops currently occupy a small part of the Kharkiv region and the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv region and are attempting to advance towards the border with Dnipropetrovsk region, and the Kremlin may use the limited occupation of territory in these regions as a false pretext to demand that Ukraine cede even more territory.
Verbatim from the report: "ISW continues to assess that Putin remains uninterested in good-faith negotiations that require compromises and believes he can achieve his military objectives in the medium and long term."
Details: Experts remind that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on February 26 that if Russia "puts forward maximalist demands, knowing they cannot be met," then the United States will understand that Putin is not "serious" about participating in negotiations.
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated on February 26 that Russia would have to make concessions in peace negotiations and repeated on February 27 that the United States "will certainly try to regain as much (territory) as possible back (to Ukraine)."
Verbatim from the report: "The Kremlin's directives to Russian state media regarding coverage of recent Russian-American meetings indicate Putin's determination to manipulate and divide the West."
Key Findings from ISW on February 27:
- Putin and high-ranking Russian officials continue to reject U.S. terms in negotiations and demand that Ukraine hand over territories that Russia does not occupy.
- The Kremlin's directives to Russian state media regarding coverage of recent Russian-American meetings demonstrate Putin's determination to manipulate U.S. President Donald Trump and divide the West.
- American and Russian delegations met in Istanbul, Turkey, on February 27 to continue discussions on U.S.-Russian bilateral diplomatic relations.
- Reportedly, the Kremlin continues to push the United States to accept economic benefits unrelated to the war in Ukraine in exchange for concessions from Ukraine and the West related to the war.
- Reports indicate that North Korea has recently deployed additional troops in the Kursk region as the DPRK continues to expand its military capabilities through cooperation with Russia.
- Ukrainian forces have recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, while Russian troops have moved near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.